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You are here: Home / Features / London Emissions Flawed Modelling

London Emissions Flawed Modelling

11th April 2019 by Motorcycleminds 7 Comments

Transport for London (TfL) has repeatedly claimed that individual motorcycles can be highly polluting and has used this logic in part to charge pre Euro 3 (i.e. pre 2007) motorcycles £12.50 a day, which don’t measure up to emission standards in the newly introduced Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in central London.

The Motorcycle Action group – MAG – has however challenged this view and has provided sound evidence that this “logic” is flawed.

Ditching its usual rhetoric MAG has come out of its corner, demanding that TfL produce evidence to back this claim that pre Euro 3 motorcycles are highly polluting.

MAG argues that TfL after stalling for many months, have now indicated that they take information from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory,  which is a modelling calculation.

MAG points out that this modelling actually supports their position that pre-Euro 3 motorcycles are not necessarily “highly polluting” and that, by the admission of the software modellers, the figures over-estimate real-world emissions from motorcycles, with this leading to poor decision making.

As we reported the MCIA (Motorcycle Industry Association) have commented that in the run up to Mondays (8th April 2019) introduction of the ULEZ, TfL, “imposed a wall of silence with regard to PTW charging.” and that TfL forged, “Ahead with the PTW charge and refusing to engage the industry or other organisations.”

MCIA’s chief executive Tony Campbell, has written to Mayor Khan to seek a suspension of the charge and to request an urgent meeting – Mayor Khan to date has not replied to this letter.

“MAG is more than happy to answer any questions about motorcycle emissions, and to work with any authority that genuinely wants to reduce air pollution to correct the modelling and come to workable policies that promote the use of motorcycles and scooters.”

While the industry and other organisations including MAG have had “meaningful” meetings and held public demonstrations prior to TfL ending discussions, based on the evidence that MAG has provided, it would be a real bonus to motorcyclists who commute and live in London if TfL and the London Mayor – Sadiq Khan, were to reconsider their decision and recommence discussions with those who represent motorcycling.

The article by MAG is a real game changer and just shows how research and science can be used to challenge pre-conceived opinions.

MAG brands industry standard emissions calculator unfit for purpose.

Following repeated claims from Transport for London (TfL) that “individually, motorcycles can be highly polluting”, MAG has demanded that TfL produce evidence to back this claim.  TfL stalled for many months before finally claiming that they take information from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory.

MAG investigated this “evidence” and discovered that the information from NAEI is, in fact, a modelling calculation; and we can now reveal that this model actually backs our position that pre-Euro 3 motorcycles are not necessarily “highly polluting” and that, by the admission of the software modellers, the figures over-estimate real-world emissions from motorcycles.

TfL has chosen a NOx emissions limit of 0.15g/km for motorcycles, based on the figure for this single pollutant in the Euro 3 motorcycle standard.  TfL claim that the evidence for pre-Euro 3 motorcycles being highly polluting is provided by the COPERT 5 data for average motorcycle emissions at an average speed of 30km/h.

The data from COPERT 5 shows that average emissions from pre-Euro 1 <50cc mopeds; pre-Euro 1, Euro 1 and Euro 2 two-strokes; Euro 2 four-strokes 250 – 750cc; pre-Euro 1, Euro 1 and Euro 2 four strokes >750cc, all average less than 0.15g/km.  At the same time, the cleanest ULEZ-exempt Euro 6c diesel cars emit 0.21g/km.  MAG has also had confirmation from Emisia – the company behind the COPERT modelling software – that their models do not allow for the emissions advantage possessed by motorcycles in terms of filtering through congested traffic.

Studies carried out by the Federation of European Motorcyclists Associations (FEMA) demonstrated that, across 17 major European cities, motorcycles on average reduce journey times by 30% compared with cars. The COPERT modelling can therefore be shown to over-estimate the already low emissions figures for motorcycles by this same percentage.

MAG’s Director of Campaigns & Political Engagement, Colin Brown, stated “This research has led us to a conclusion that has far-reaching implications beyond Sadiq Khan’s London: indeed beyond the UK, to the whole of Europe.  Any air quality modelling that relies on the COPERT software is misrepresenting the part that motorcycles play in air quality.  No modelling will ever reveal the benefit that modal shift to motorcycles and scooters can play in improving the quality of the air that we all breathe.  An opportunity for all is being hidden through the use of faulty assumptions that motorcycles are the same as cars and should be treated in exactly the same way.  This is flawed modelling that leads to poor decision-making.

MAG is more than happy to answer any questions about motorcycle emissions, and to work with any authority that genuinely wants to reduce air pollution to correct the modelling and come to workable policies that promote the use of motorcycles and scooters.  As we have maintained all along: motorcycles are the solution not the problem.”

Original Source – MAG brands industry standard emissions calculator unfit for purpose

Mobility Test Oslo 2017

Information – Motorcycle Minds – London – MCIA – ULEZ – Seeking Exemption – London – Critical Measure For ULEZ Exemption – Motorcycle Action Group – MAG meets Mayor Khan: and it’s good news – Biker& Bike – Loophole means older motorbikes may still qualify for ULEZ exemption – We Ride London – Euro 3 Compliance Info – Facebook – TFL – Motorcycles, mopeds and more

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Filed Under: Features, The Road Tagged With: Environmental, London

« MCIA – ULEZ – Seeking Exemption
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Comments

  1. Colin says

    2nd September 2020 at 5:34 pm

    I live and work in London.

    Work is inside the current ULEZ zone, and my home is inside the extended zone that comes into force next year.

    I ride a Ducati 916.

    I decided to take it in and get it checked.

    Nox was too high, so I had new cats fitted into each pipe.

    This brought the Nox well down and within the current spec, so my beautiful Ducati is now 100% ULEZ compliant.

    Yes, in total with test, fitting cats and a retest it cost about £500, but although it’s expensive, 40 odd days of riding and not paying the fee will cover my costs.

    It means that every day I can now ride into central London (Westminster) and make shit loads of noise with my Duke on nearly empty roads.

    Outrageous cost and stupid requirements, but sometimes we just have to comply to get what we want in the end.

  2. Motorcycleminds says

    28th May 2019 at 8:15 pm

    Fantastic!

  3. william keep says

    28th May 2019 at 6:07 pm

    bye bike PASSED honda c90 club 2001 year. great news

  4. Motorcycleminds says

    26th May 2019 at 7:45 am

    Hi William, if you sue – let us know how you get on 🙂

  5. william says

    23rd May 2019 at 6:32 pm

    On Saturday I’m going to take my c90 Honda Club and hope Ive been told it will pass if it does can I sue for my money back 175 pounds.

  6. Motorcycleminds says

    12th April 2019 at 6:13 pm

    There is more from the Motorcycle Action Group (MAG)

    MAG is still campaigning to minimise the effect of ULEZ Charges on motorcyclists.

    1) We are continually putting forward new data, proving that motorcycles are part of the solution, not part of the problem, and asking that ALL motorcycles be classed as exempt from ULEZ Charges, regardless of age.

    2) We have negotiated that a copy of the V5 Registration Document can be uploaded to TfL’s Enquiry Page if the nOX is shown at 0.150 g/km and the bike exempted from ULEZ Charges.

    3) We have negotiated that owners of bikes that don’t have the nOX listed on the V5 Registration Document can apply to the motorcycle manufacturer for a Certificate of Compliance, which (assuming nOX of less than 0.150 g/km) can be uploaded to TfL’s Enquiry Page and that vehicle can be exempted from ULEZ Charges.

    4) We have consulted with River Bank Motorcycles of Hackney Wick and together negotiated with TfL to allow motorcyclists without a Certificate of Compliance to be able to have their bike’s emissions tested. If less than 0.150 g/km River Bank Motorcycles submit the result directly to TfL who then exempt the motorcycle from ULEZ Charges.

    Many motorcyclists are up to £4,500 better off because of MAG’s efforts (particularly Greater London MAG’s) to date, and many more will be saved by their efforts if the charges are still being requested by the time ULEZ is expanded to the North Circular and South Circular Roads.

    Each of these have been successes for Motorcycle Action Group, but we are still working on point 1.., exemption from ULEZ Charges for all motorcycles.

    Original Source – MAG Facebook Page

  7. Motorcycleminds says

    12th April 2019 at 12:26 pm

    MAG slams TfL’s ‘guilty until proven innocent’ approach to ULEZ

    Picture Via Motorcycle Action GroupMAG’s Director of Campaigns & Political Engagement, Colin Brown, has expressed outrage that motorcyclists in London are being treated as guilty until proven innocent by Transport for London (TfL) and London’s Mayor, Sadiq Khan.

    Colin said “In the midst of press hype around the launch of Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ policy, MAG received a quiet email from TfL along with their official press release, stating that ‘the website information for powered two wheelers is also up-to-date’. Whilst we are happy to see those details – covering the routes for individual exemptions by Certificate of Conformity (CoC) and individual testing – once again we see that TfL is happy to treat bikers as guilty until they jump through hoops and suffer financial burden to prove their innocence.

    TfL’s formal press release to the world makes no mention of the hard-won concessions that they have been forced to make. Bear in mind that these concessions show that TfL accept that they are unnecessarily charging many bikers in the first place. I am even more disgusted by the fact that they refuse to publicly announce that they have no intention of reimbursing bikers for the expensive emissions test that can be conducted at a single test station that was not open for business until one day before the ULEZ implementation date, and they also will not reimburse any ULEZ payments made before any individual exemption is agreed. They are therefore blatantly refusing to repay monies that they accept were never due, and are deliberately hiding the possibility of individuals proving their innocence.”

    TfL’s updated details on motorcycles state:

    “Check your vehicle to see if it meets the standards. If the checker says your vehicle is subject to ULEZ but you think it does meet the standards, follow the steps on the results page to send us proof.

    Contact your vehicle’s manufacturer if you’re not sure about its emissions – we will accept supporting evidence from them.

    Motorbike emissions testing

    We will also accept evidence from test facilities approved by us for measuring NOx emissions. If successful, the test facility will contact us with the results.

    Test centres that believe they can offer motorcycle emissions testing to the required standards should email their contact details to ruculezenquiries@tfl.gov.uk

    Approved centres for motorcycle emissions testing

    Riverbank Motorcycles Ltd
    Unit 12, Riverbank Business Park
    Dye House Lane, Bow
    London E3 2TB

    Motorcycle Minds – Tests will cost £175. For more information (or to book in for a test) please visit: http://www.nationalemissionstestcentre.com or call Riverbank Motorcycles on: 02089834896

    The full details can be found at: Motorcycle, mopeds and more

    MAG wants to hear your stories of how you have been affected by ULEZ. If you have incurred any financial burden (e.g. from selling a bike that was later found to be compliant, receiving fines or making ULEZ payments for a bike that was later proven to be compliant), please get in touch.

    Contact MAG at 01926 844 064 or central-office@mag-uk.org

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